Bayesian information fusion for state estimation in AC/DC networks with unbalanced HVDC grids
Authors:
- Vitor Henrique Pereira de Melo
- Marta Vanin
- Hakan Ergun
- Joao Bosco Augusto London Junior
- Dirk Van Hertem
Published in:
Electric Power Systems Research - Special Issue on Power System Computation Conference 2026, ISSN: 0378-7796, 2026.
Abstract:
This paper proposes a State Estimation (SE) method for AC/DC networks monitored through heterogeneous data sources, based on Bayesian Information Fusion (BIF). The proposed model allows to represent bipolar High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) grids operating in balanced or unbalanced mode. Unbalanced operation of bipolar HVDC grids is a natural consequence of single-pole outages, and may become a relevant operating condition in offshore grids, due to longe repair times. This paper casts Forecasting-Aided State Estimation (FASE) as a generic constrained optimization problem, enabling the straightforward modeling of AC/DC converter operational limits through inequality constraints and the flexible adoption of different SE objectives. Both Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and Weighted Least Absolute Value (WLAV) objectives are employed. Results demonstrate that BIF leverages sparsely available data from synchronized measurements, providing reliable estimates in networks affected by intermittent renewable generation and actions of power electronic converters.
